Property Finance Update - November 22
Christmas is just around the corner, so if you haven’t done your shopping it might be wise to start now. In the meantime, let me share with you my thoughts on the current property market.
The link between interest rates and property prices is undeniable.
When rates are low, property prices rise. When rates rise, property prices decline.
The main reason this is true is because of the amount people can borrow will go up and down inverse so what rates do. Low rates, you can afford a higher loan amount, high rates means you can't borrow as much.
For property this is particularly evident at auctions.
If you can borrow a million dollars you will continue to waive the paddle and bid right up until your borrowing limit. If you can borrow $800k then your paddle comes down a lot faster.
People bid up prices of property when they have more money to spend.
The money they spend is either cash or cash borrowed (aka mortgage).
As rates go up the amount people can borrow goes down, the less they can spend on a property.
The less people can spend means prices get dragged down.
Over the past 12 months peoples borrowing power has reduced by about a quarter.
That is a massive change. It is a change that has been driven by rising interest rates. The RBA has inflicted a fast paced and sudden change in the cost of money, the second fastest rise in Australia's history, and it is going to mean pain for the housing market.
In a blog post I wrote a year ago:
"In a potential nightmare scenario property prices could drop 20% while the cash needed to service a loan increases by 20%.
While this is unlikely in the short term it is a realistic scenario we might see in the next two years as rates rise which could trigger a massive correction in property prices.
Regular readers will know I predicted record high property prices in 2020 and said we would have record high prices again in 2021, and now I will say we might hit a new peak early next year before a decline.
As soon as the RBA cash rate starts to rise that will mark the end of the boom"
Well, that prediction of 20% up in mortgage costs and 20% down on property prices is basically already correct....
As a side comment, while the examples outlined above are focused on property it is largely true for any products. When the RBA changes interest rates it is trying to change your mind on how much you spend. Given the current inflation, they are raising rates to try and change your mind and lower your spending.
Anyway here are four stories I think you’ll like:
Australian market gets big tick
The properties tenants want most
Govt aims to build 1m new homes
Home builders have record pipeline
Read more below.
One of the world’s largest real estate firms has given five very good reasons why “Australian real estate represents a compelling investment”.
CBRE said Australian real estate has provided an average return of 9.5% per annum over the past decade – significantly higher than the average home loan interest rate during that period.
Rental vacancy rates are below 1% in some cities. When supply is low, demand is high, which is translating into "robust rent growth".
Australia's population is forecast to grow 14% between in 2021-2030, which would be the "highest amongst leading economies". More people would mean more demand for real estate.
Australia has a "strong" and "resilient" economy, which makes it a good place to invest.
Local real estate is relatively easy to sell if you decide you want to cash out. CBRE said Australia ranks sixth in the world on the dollar value of property transactions.
I can help you secure finance to buy a property, whether it’s to live in or for investment purposes. Get in touch if you need a loan
As any property investor could tell you, rents have grown strongly over the past year. But when you drill down into the data, as realestate.com.au did, you discover that some types of rental property have been more in-demand with tenants than others. Between the September quarters of 2021 and 2022, demand was higher for houses (which experienced an 11.1% annual increase in rents) than units (7.1%). Drilling down further, by bedroom size, it turns out that houses with more bedrooms were more popular than those with less:
2 bedrooms 7.7% annual growth
3 bedrooms 9.3%
4 bedrooms 12.0%
5 and more bedrooms 11.4%
For units, the results were different:
1 bedroom 11.1% annual growth
2 bedrooms 8.4%
3 and more bedrooms 10.0%
Whether you want to buy an investment property to take advantage of these rising rents or buy your first home to escape them – I can help. The most important part of buying a property is securing finance. I can compare home loans on your behalf, recommend a suitable lender, structure your loan correctly and manage the application on your behalf. Reach out for a home loan
The federal government has rolled out a new policy to address what it calls “one of our nation’s biggest economic challenges” – housing affordability. The National Housing Accord, which was unveiled in the recent Budget, aims to improve affordability by building one million new well-located homes over five years from 2024. What makes the accord unique is that, for the first time, it aligns the efforts of governments, institutional investors and the construction sector. The role of the construction sector will be to build homes that are more energy-efficient and to train more apprentices. Institutional investors, like superannuation funds, will be expected to fund development projects "for their members’ interests and for the national interest".
As for governments:
The federal government will provide financing options to facilitate institutional investment in social and affordable housing
States and territories will expedite zoning, planning and land release for social and affordable housing
Councils will deliver planning reforms and free up land for new builds
Whether you want to build a new home or buy an existing home, it's important you get your finances in order so you maximise your chances of qualifying for a loan. Three ways to make yourself more creditworthy are to pay all your bills on time, reduce your expenses and increase your income. Contact me if you need a pre-approval
There are a record number of homes under construction, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. A total of 241,926 home builds were underway in the June quarter, which was up 0.7% from the previous record result recorded in the quarter before. On the surface, that would suggest the federal government's plan to build one million new homes (see previous story) in five years is realistic. However, as Housing Industry Association economist Tom Devitt pointed out, there are "more houses still being commenced than completed", which means this "record pipeline" of building work is due to limited supply rather than overwhelming demand.
"Supply constraints are continuing to hold back completion of these projects. Materials constraints have plagued builders over the last two years, and shortages of skilled trades have only become more acute," he said. "These supply constraints will keep Australia’s home builders busy this year and next as they continue to work down this record volume of detached house projects." Want to build? I can help you get finance